According to a former Mexican trade negotiator, the breakdown of trade discussions between Ottawa and Washington might lead U.S. negotiators to pursue a strong outcome with Mexico in their ongoing bilateral talks. Kenneth Smith Ramos, Mexico’s former chief technical negotiator for the 2017-2019 Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) negotiations, anticipates the U.S. aiming to establish a framework agreement with Mexico soon while delaying resolution on more contentious issues, such as potential restrictions on Mexican agricultural exports, to a later period.
Smith Ramos suggested that the U.S. could swiftly propose a framework agreement with Mexico for political reasons, mirroring its approach with the European Union, in the upcoming negotiation rounds. He emphasized the likelihood of this scenario unfolding.
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Both Canada and Mexico have been engaging separately with the U.S. to address tariff and other trade issues before engaging in trilateral talks to amend and extend CUSMA.
Negotiations between Canada and the U.S. collapsed on August 21 after Prime Minister Mark Carney withdrew his negotiators due to last-minute demands from the U.S. related to culture, autos, and sovereignty that Canada found unacceptable.
The failed talks aimed to prevent the U.S. from imposing 50% tariffs on approximately $27 billion worth of Canadian products. In response, Canada has imposed counter-tariffs on over 700 U.S. imports effective September 8.
The dispute has indefinitely postponed any trilateral discussions on advancing CUSMA, as stated by Smith Ramos.
The U.S. decided on July 1 not to extend the CUSMA agreement but instead renegotiate its terms, contrary to the desires of Canada and Mexico, who believe the trade agreement benefits all three nations.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum emphasized the importance of finding common ground between Canada and the U.S., stating that regional integration is crucial and expressing hope for a resolution despite current tensions.
The Sheinbaum administration in Mexico is delicately managing its own trade issues with the U.S., aiming to avoid any negative impact on discussions with Canada, according to Solange Marquez, vice-president of policy at the Canadian Council for the Americas.
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