Prime Minister Mark Carney emphasizes the significant role Canada plays in fueling American growth, citing the export of natural gas to the U.S. as a crucial factor. This raises the question of what would occur if Canada ceased sending gas across the border.
Despite the ongoing Canada-U.S. trade tensions, energy commodities like oil and natural gas have not been utilized as bargaining tools. The suggestion of using these products in negotiations has sparked debate, with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith consistently opposing the idea while Ontario’s Doug Ford advocates for considering all options.
Carney highlighted that the U.S. heavily relies on Canada for its energy needs, with Canada supplying 99% of their natural gas imports, 85% of electricity imports, and 60% of crude oil imports. Natural gas imports from Canada to the U.S. averaged 8.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, accounting for almost all non-domestic supply for America but only about 8% of total U.S. natural gas consumption.
Dulles Wang from Wood Mackenzie, an energy research firm, indicates that Canadian natural gas shipments to the U.S. constitute a small percentage compared to domestic production but are crucial in specific regions such as the Pacific Northwest. Enbridge, a major natural gas provider headquartered in Calgary, plays a significant role in the North American natural gas market.
Wang explains the intricate network of natural gas pipelines crossing the Canada-U.S. border and the bi-directional flow of gas between the two countries. He stresses that halting natural gas exports to the U.S. would have severe economic consequences for Canada, causing an oversupply and price collapse.
The Canadian government aims to diversify its energy markets beyond the U.S., with LNG exports to Asian markets gaining traction. Projects like the LNG Canada facility in Kitimat, B.C., and the Ksi Lisims LNG export facility demonstrate Canada’s commitment to expanding its energy export opportunities.
